Report on the AIDS Epidemic Model (AEM) baseline scenarios for Sri Lanka

Estimation of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Sri Lanka has been conducted using estimation and projection package (EPP) and Spectrum since 2009. During 2016 also PLHIV estimation was carried out using EPP and spectrum software (version 5.571 in 2016). Spectrum software was developed by Avenir Health (www.avenirhealth.org) and the Estimates and Projections Package, which is developed by the East-West Center (www.eastwestcenter.org). The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections provides technical guidance on the development of the HIV component of the software (www.epidem.org). The assumptions in the models about patterns of HIV transmission and disease progression are used to obtain age- and sex-specific estimates of the number of people living with HIV, the number of people newly infected with HIV and the number of people dying from AIDS-related causes as well as other important indicators.