Modeling the Course of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in China: An Application of a Bio-Behavioral Macrosimulation Model of the Spread of HIV/AIDS

The magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic has exceeded all expectations since the virus was first identified 20 years ago. Today, an estimated 42 million people are infected with HIV, and more than 20 million have already died. The epidemic has hit hardest in Sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS deaths in this region account for over three quarters of the global death toll. Because of its large population, Asia is the home to the largest number of people living with HIV/AIDS of any region beside Sub-Saharan Africa. In Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar adult prevalence rates range from 1.8% to 3%. It is expected that HIV may soon spread in the world's most populous countries, India and China.